August turns ugly for Nationals

Baseball Betting Lines

08/20/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sooner or later the Washington Nationals would fall from grace after their hot start this month.

As Homer said to Bart during an old April Fool's episode of The Simpsons, "You couldn't fool your mother on the foolingest day of your life if you had an electrified fooling machine."

The same can be said for the Nationals in August after they opened the month with five straight wins. Then manager Manny Acta's ballclub began playing much like the NL East doormats they have always been, losing nine of the following 13 games, including a current four-game slide.

Most sports fans with a pulse could have predicted that the Nationals had no chance of making the playoffs back in April, and those bets will still stand strong when October rolls around. I also don't claim to be a genius with that assessment, but it gets pretty old watching this franchise falter in the summer heat year after year.

Washington just completed a six-game homestand against division rivals Philadelphia and New York, ending with a 1-5 record. It scored no more than four runs in each of those contests and fell to 31-34 at RFK Stadium this season.

Maybe a season-long 10-game road trip is what Acta's club needs to get back in the win column. The Nationals own an 8-10 road record since the beginning of July and will pay visits to Houston (four games), Colorado (three games) and Los Angeles (three games) with hopes of improving a 24-35 road mark.

NATS ADD PENA TO ROSTER

Nats general manager Jim Bowden liked what he saw from Wily Mo Pena while with the Cincinnati Reds and dealt for the outfielder last week. Pena and cash considerations were sent to Washington from Beantown for a player to be named.

Pena, who hit .218 with five home runs and 17 RBI in 73 games with Boston this year, made his Washington debut on Saturday at RFK Stadium against the New York Mets. Pena started in left field and went 1-for-4 with two runs scored in a 7-4 setback to the division-leading Mets. He then homered in Sunday's loss.

"He brings legitimate power," teammate Dmitri Young said of Pena. "He will complement our guys who will hit the gaps. It's just a matter of getting some playing time. "Nothing against [Ryan] Church, because Church has been doing the job all year, but ultimately Pena will make every player better."

JOHNSON WILL NOT PLAY IN '07

Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson will not play this season in order to recover from a broken right femur suffered in a collision with teammate Austin Kearns against the New York Mets on September 23 last season.

Johnson has been rehabilitating ever since and his return date was pushed back several times. Johnson also received two cortisone shots to kill the pain and, according to GM Jim Bowden, his hip has been giving him the most problems.

The slugger, who batted .290 with 23 homers and 77 RBI in 2006, was sent to the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN this week and doctors discovered bursitis in the hip. It was then suggested Johnson undergo surgery to remove the rod and screw that had been inserted in the broken femur.

Johnson is expected to have the procedure done on Saturday in Washington. Doctors believe he will be ready for Spring Training next year.

WHO'S HOT

Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who owns 13 extra-base hits this month, batted .348 with five doubles and two RBI during the recent six-game homestand.

Zimmerman is hitting.333 with 16 RBI in 19 games since July 31. He owns a .310 batting average and 45 hits after the All-Star break.

WHO'S NOT

Washington catcher Brian Schneider has just a .222 batting average (4-for-20) over his last eight games.

Infielder Felipe Lopez has one hit in his past 18 at-bats after recording 21 hits over the previous 68 plate appearances.

ON DECK

The Nationals open a season-long 10-game road trip on Monday night with the first of four games against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.

They will then visit the Colorado Rockies for three games at Coors Field before opening a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.

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What Is the Point Spread?

What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read Point Spreads

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.

How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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