Bautista powers Pirates past Astros

Baseball Betting Lines

09/15/2007 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jose Bautista hit a go-ahead, two-run homer in the eighth inning, and the Pittsburgh Pirates held off the Houston Astros, 4-3, in the start of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.

Pittsburgh entered the night two games ahead of last-place Houston in the National League Central standings.

Bautista also tripled, and Freddy Sanchez had two hits and scored a run for the Pirates, who have won four of their last five games. Romulo Sanchez (1-0) earned the win by recording the final out in the seventh, after starter Ian Snell allowed one run and five hits, while walking five and fanning eight over six frames.

Lance Berkman homered and Josh Anderson had two hits and knocked in a run for Houston, which has lost 10 of its last 12 games. Chad Qualls (6-5) took the loss, allowing three runs and four hits in the eighth to waste a solid outing by Roy Oswalt, who yielded just one unearned run and six hits over seven innings in the start.

The Pirates opened the scoring in the third when Sanchez doubled with two outs and scored on a single by Adam LaRoche.

Houston loaded the bases in the home half, but was kept off the board when Pittsburgh center fielder Nyjer Morgan made a tremendous, over-the-shoulder catch of Ty Wigginton's fly ball to the fence.

The Astros made it 1-1 in the sixth, as Wigginton opened the inning with a line-drive double to right. A one-out single by Brad Ausmus moved him to third, and Oswalt reached on a fielder's choice, as Sanchez had the ball glance off his glove at second base, plating Wigginton with the tying run.

Berkman's solo homer put Houston back on top in the seventh, but the Pirates scored three in the eighth as Sanchez singled and Bautista clubbed a one-out, two-run homer off the left-field foul pole. Steven Pearce singled, stole second and trotted home on Ronny Paulino's base hit to left-center.

A pinch-hit double by Carlos Lee, coupled with an RBI single from Anderson, pulled Houston within a run in the eighth.

Matt Capps came in and shut the door in the ninth, however, earning his 17th save of the season.

Game Notes

Berkman's homer marks the fifth time in his career he's had at least a 30- home run season. It is the second most in franchise history behind Jeff Bagwell, who has nine 30-homer seasons...The Pirates have won 10 of their 13 meetings with the Astros this season after dropping 13 of 16 against Houston in 2006...The Astros bullpen had pitched 16 consecutive scoreless innings coming into the game...Houston's Hunter Pence has hit safely in 13 of his last 16 games and 20 of 24 overall.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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