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07/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves are shooting for a split of a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday afternoon, when the two ballclubs wrap up a lengthy set from Turner Field.
The Braves have dropped two in a row and three of four games since a four-game winning streak and were beaten, 6-3, in Saturday's contest. Tim Hudson was aiming for his 10th win of the season, but was rocked for six runs, including five in the seventh inning, in 6 2/3 innings to fall to 9-5 on the year.
"I wasn't nearly as crisp as I would have liked to be in the seventh," Hudson said after the game.
Matt Diaz hit a two-run homer and Eric Hinske added a solo blast for the Braves, whose lead in the NL East slipped to 4 1/2 games ahead of Philadelphia. The New York Mets are five games behind the Braves.
Struggling Braves starter Derek Lowe gets the nod this afternoon and has lost three straight trips to the hill. He is only 1-4 with a 4.22 earned run average in his last seven starts, with the Braves going 2-5 over that period.
Lowe last pitched in Sunday's 3-0 loss against the Mets and allowed two runs on eight hits over 5 1/3 innings, falling to 9-8 in 19 starts to go along with a 4.35 earned run average.
The right-hander, who is 6-3 in nine home starts this season, beat Milwaukee back on May 12 at Miller Park with six innings of two-run ball in his team's 9-2 win. He is 4-1 in 10 career games (8 starts) against the Brewers.
Milwaukee is playing good baseball right now and will try to win its second straight series today after sweeping Pittsburgh in three games prior to taking two of three matchups so far with the Braves.
Chris Narveson threw six innings of two-run ball and John Axford struck out two batters over 1 1/3 innings of relief for his 11th save. Prince Fielder homered to lead off the decisive seventh inning and Corey Hart stroked a three-run double to highlight the frame.
The game got a little heated as Fielder led off the eighth. The first pitch from Atlanta reliever Jonny Venters sailed over the head of the All-Star first baseman. Home plate umpire Angel Hernandez immediately issued a warning to both benches, but the lefty's next pitch drilled Fielder in the back, resulting in an ejection for him and Braves manager Bobby Cox.
"I was just trying to go right at him," Venters said. "The first one was a breaking ball and it got away from me a little bit. The second pitch was a sinker and it just ran away from me. Unfortunately, it hit him. There was nothing intentional about it. It was a three-run game."
Milwaukee will visit the Pirates for four games after this set and will hand the ball to Manny Parra on Sunday. Parra is just 3-6 with a 4.65 earned run average in 26 games, nine of which have been starts, this season. He was 2-0 in three outings before losing to San Francisco the previous time out on July 8 at Miller Park.
Parra was shelled for six runs -- four earned -- and 10 hits in five innings and has now lost three of his last five decisions. The lefty is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two relief appearances against the Braves this season and is 0-1 in four career games (2 starts) in this series.
The Braves had won five straight and seven of their last eight versus the Brewers before losing on Friday.
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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