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08/18/2007 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denny Hamlin pulled away from the field after the last round of pit stops and never looked back to capture Saturday afternoon's Carfax 250 Busch Series race at the Michigan International Speedway. The No.20 Joe Gibbs Racing Chevrolet driver crossed the finish line 6.998 seconds ahead of Matt Kenseth.
The victory was Hamlin's second of the season and fourth of his Busch career.
After winning his first Busch pole since 2004, Greg Biffle led the field to the green flag for 125 laps of high-speed racing.
The No.16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford driver was unsuccessful in holding off a charging Brian Vickers, who took the inside lane, on the first lap.
Vickers was still in the first when the initial caution flag of the race came out on lap seven. David Reutimann, who was second in the drivers standings, came down pit road during the caution period to fix a left-front fender problem.
On lap 11 Vickers led Biffle, Hamlin, Kenseth and Kevin Harvick to the restart. Kenseth used a great restart to make his way to the front. On lap 16 Kenseth ducked under Vickers for the lead.
The points leader, Carl Edwards, experienced some trouble when he spun out on lap 24 to bring out the caution flag. Edwards then received a penalty for entering pit road to early, which left him at the back of the field.
Vickers, who retook the top spot just before the caution came out, led the leaders down pit lane for their first pit stops of the afternoon under the caution period. Hamlin won the race off pit road followed by Biffle, Harvick, Kenseth and Vickers.
The race got back underway on lap 28, but four laps later, Tony Stewart brought out the caution flag. Vickers had to stop during the caution because his crew failed to completely fill his fuel tank on his last pit stop.
Kenseth led Hamlin, Biffle, Harvick and Mark Martin to the restart on lap 36. Kenseth held onto the lead, but Hamlin followed close behind.
Kenseth and Hamlin traded the first position back-and-forth a number of times. Kenseth finally won the battle and started to pull away on lap 58. Biffle, Harvick and Paul Menard battled behind these two drivers.
The No.17 Roush Ford driver had almost a one-second margin on Hamlin. That gap was quickly cut into as Kenseth approached lap traffic. And on lap 68 Hamlin took the outside lane to pass Kenseth.
Hamlin was still showing the way as the last round of pit stops approached for the leaders.
The leader came down pit road on lap 77 for his last stop. The rest of the leaders took their last stops during the next few laps. Kenseth had a slow stop which hurt his chance of winning.
When the cycle of green flag stops was complete, Hamlin led Kenseth, Harvick, Biffle and Martin. But the No.20 JGR Chevrolet driver held over a two-second lead as the field spread out.
With 25 laps left the margin for Hamlin was 2.453 seconds. As the lead continued to increase it was obvious it would take a caution flag for someone to have a chance of beating Hamlin.
The remaining laps had very little excitement. There were no more caution flags allowing Hamlin to cross the finish line unchallenged.
Harvick, Jeff Burton and Biffle completed the top-five.
Harvick's third-place finish vaulted him into second place overall, 700 points behind leader Edwards, who finished 28th.
The next race in the series is set for Friday, August 24th at the Bristol Motor Speedway.
<< Red Sox purchase Kielty's contract from minors
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox purchased the contract of
outfielder Bobby Kielty from Triple-A Pawtucket on Saturday.
On August 6, the Red Sox signed Kielty to a minor league deal and in 10 games
with Pawtucket, Kielty
<< Ari's double leads Alkmaar past Venlo
Alkmaar, Holland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brazilian striker Ari collected a pair
of goals and added an assist to lift AZ Alkmaar over Venlo, 4-0, on opening
weekend of Eredivisie play on Saturday.
Alkmaar opened up the scoring in the sixth
<< Vahirua double sinks Lyon
Lorient, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marama Vahirua scored a pair of goals to
help Lorient knock off Lyon 2-1 at Stade du Moustoir on Saturday.
Lyon, the defending six-time league champions, have now dropped two of their
first three game
<< Federer outlasts Hewitt to reach Cincy final
Mason, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Federer needed more than 2 1/2 hours, but
gutted out a three-set triumph over Lleyton Hewitt to reach the final at the
Cincinnati Masters.
The top-seeded Federer earned a hard-fought, 6-3, 6-7 (7-9), 7-
Levin and Smith move in front in Montreal >>
Ile Bizard, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Canadian Tour money leader Spencer Levin
and Byron Smith, close friends off the golf course, are tied for the lead
after three rounds of the Montreal Open.
Levin posted a four-under 68 on Saturday
Texans topple Cardinals in preseason play >>
Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Schaub completed 9-of-12 passes for 108
yards and ran for a touchdown as the Houston Texans downed the Arizona
Cardinals, 33-20, at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Sage Rosenfels was 8-for-13 f
Mets' Castro placed on DL >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Mets catcher Ramon Castro was put
on the 15-day disabled list Saturday due to lower back pain.
Castro is the second Mets catcher to be put on the DL in the last week, as he
joined Paul Lo Duca.
Edwards and McNulty share Tradition lead >>
Sunriver, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Edwards and Mark McNulty are tied for
the lead after Saturday's third round of the Champions Tour's fourth major of
the year, The Tradition.
Edwards, the overnight leader, only managed an even-pa
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason
LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.
The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.
MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.
A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.
A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.
Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.
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